Russia supports bilateral military cooperation, especially an annual military exercise, and it now pressures Mongolia to join the SCO and Eurasian Economic Union. With public opinion generally positive toward Russia, Russia is still considered an important, even inevitable, option to reach the Russian and European economies, but there are complications.
Second, it is unlikely that Russia would support proposals for Mongolia to become an economic corridor between China and Russia. Russia would rather build natural gas and oil pipelines, railroads, and roads through its Far East to develop its own local economies and lower transit risks. It does not want an increase of Chinese or Western influence in Mongolia, unless all parties accommodate Russian interests. Russia would rather see North Korea as a vital economic corridor to East Asian economies.
Third, Russia and Mongolia are now economic competitors; both are trying to reach Chinese and East Asian markets with the same products, e. This makes the Russia option the most complicated one. For Mongolia, Japan is the only proximate major power that could potentially serve as an external balancer against a rising China and an alternate source of technology, capital, and markets.
On the Japanese side, the relationship seems to be driven by geopolitical and ideological factors. Japan became a strategic partner in and the first G7 as well as OECD country to enter into a free trade arrangement with Mongolia from It is another option for global and regional economic linkage. During his visit to Mongolia, the two governments agreed to increased collaboration in many areas, including military-to-military relations.
Japan and China have avoided open competition over Mongolia. After all, Japan and Mongolia need China to facilitate their relations. Even though Japan is now broadening relations into the political and security sphere, it has not demonstrated any interest in using Mongolia as an outpost for democracy promotion unlike the US approach or part of a military encirclement strategy.
Apart from Japan, India and Australia appear to have kept their ties with Mongolia in this emerging order. Australia is emerging as another important distant player, but its interests are restricted to mining investments rather than political and security ties. Both share historical concerns about China, the values of liberal democracy, and interest in nuclear non-proliferation and human security.
It needs Japanese capital to finance infrastructure—the international airport, exploitation of mining deposits, and industrialization projects, and it has secured samurai bonds and requested ODA. Mongolia needs Japanese technology in urban development, the agricultural sector, and tourism. Japan is considered the most likely buyer of its mineral resources and livestock products.
Welcoming the Sumimoto Corporation in the operation of the Tavan Tolgoi coking coal project sets an example. There are other important foundations for an amicable partnership between Mongolia and Japan.
Mongolia is the only Northeast Asian state which was not colonized by Japan. Following its own geostrategic calculations, Russia defended Mongolia from Japanese aggression in the undeclared war of Khalkhyn Gol also known as Nomunhan in In the s, the Mongolian government facilitated the repatriation of Japanese POW remains from 16 locations.
Unlike China and the two Koreas, it is not concerned with Japanese nationalism, Yasukuni visits, and other war-related matters. Rather, Mongolia supports Japan playing a larger role globally and regionally. Japanese sumo has also contributed to strong cultural ties between the two. Mongolian wrestlers have been in the forefront of Japanese sumo since , numbering four Yokozuna Grand Champions and more than 30 wrestlers competing in five divisions, from makuuchi to jonidan.
Mongolians in Japan now constitute the second largest Mongolian diaspora in Asia, after 40 thousand Mongolians in South Korea. Japan has provided extensive scholarships for Mongolian students; over are studying in Japan. These factors have built a strong foundation for bilateral relations and for Japan as a global and regional linkage. Overall, the Japanese option is critical for Mongolia—to balance against rising Chinese influence, to consolidate its democratic identity, and to strengthen its political and economic engagement globally and regionally.
Regional dynamics are changing as all major powers, including China, are pivoting and readjusting their overall strategies. Because none of the major powers wants a conflict, Mongolia, like many other smaller states, will likely operate in a favorable geostrategic environment, which could provide new opportunities for forging economic linkages.
Russia and China want to have their strategic rear Mongolia peaceful and stable while trying to manage tensions elsewhere, to suppress ongoing separatists movements, and to focus on more volatile neighbors in Central Asia. Neither wishes to trigger a security dilemma. China is more eager to offer economic linkages to its Silk Road Economic Belt, while Russia seems to be reluctant until it finds more economic benefits in Mongolia.
In this emerging scenario, taking sides would be extremely costly for a small state; Mongolia needs support and understanding from all major powers and to avoid being caught in their geopolitical rivalries. Intensive competition among political parties, factions, and interest groups has resulted in a weak bureaucracy, a vulnerable judiciary, and an unstable legal and regulatory environment. In pursuit of short-term and parochial interests, domestic actors delay developmental projects and attempt to shake up the political landscape even before the four-year election cycle to improve their bargaining position.
This intensifies mismanagement of resources, bonds, loans, and debts and undermines the democratic political order. The Strategic Entities Foreign Investment Law was passed by parliament in May and invalidated in October with the passage of the new investment law. By the end of the year a treaty has been signed which in effect turns Mongolia into a Russian protectorate.
It is merely the first in a series of alternating shot-gun marriages for the unfortunate Mongolians. In a Chinese army arrives, insisting that Mongolia sever all relations with the new Communist regime in Russia. In a Russian army reverses this situation. In the Russians and the Chinese make their own treaty above the heads of the Mongolians. The Mongolian People's Republic is to be technically independent, but the Russians now accept that it is for all practical purposes a part of China.
So Mongolia turned to the new Soviet Union again. On November 5, a small delegation met with Lenin, head of the Soviet government, and forged a Mongolian-Soviet treaty of mutual recognition and friendship.
At this time Lenin commended the Mongolians' national liberation struggle and advised them to develop the country along Communist lines. Mongolia Through Time. From the Paleolithic to Genghis Khan. Genghis Khan and the Great Mongolian Empire. In , the Manchu emperor extended the policy of sinofication from Inner Mongolia to Outer Mongolia.
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